Another Reason Why Bitcoin Is Going To Keep Moving Higher

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10 Reasons Why Bitcoin Will Fail

For people outside of the complex and exciting world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin can be hard to understand. Many have brushed it off for years, saying that it was a fad that would disappear as quickly as the value of Beanie Babies. However, with the price spiking in the thousands of dollars for a single Bitcoin, naysayers are suddenly singing a different tune. Newcomers are dumping their money into Bitcoin, hoping that the price will only continue to grow.

Many old-school investors who haven’t done their research will simply say it’s in an economic bubble and call it a day. But the reasons why Bitcoin cannot succeed in the long run go so much deeper than that. Just like any other speculative asset, no one really knows what is going to happen in the future. However, when one looks at the big picture, it becomes clear that Bitcoin will struggle to survive.

10 Blockchain > Bitcoin

The most valuable thing about Bitcoin is that it introduced blockchain technology to the world. Blockchain technology drastically improves the speed, privacy, and security of sending money. Bitcoin can be sent from one person to another without a middleman, and it encrypts everyone’s identity to a long string of letters and numbers called a “wallet.” Blockchain is a big deal. Its potential to change technology is as big as the Internet. At the moment, the world of blockchain is young and exciting, like the Wild West of the digital world.

However, even though Bitcoin was the first to introduce blockchain to the world, it’s not necessary for blockchain to exist. Sort of like if one web page goes down, the Internet still exists. Most people never saw the very first website that was ever created. It was a blank white page that was titled “World Wide Web” and a list of text links. That’s it. [1] No one could have ever imagined that that seemingly unimpressive page would evolve into what has now become what the Internet is today. There are already bigger, better, and faster versions of blockchain that made improvements on the original Bitcoin, like Ethereum and Ripple. Both of these coins, or “cryptocurrencies,” are already available on the market.

9 Big Brother Is Watching

One of the biggest benefits of Bitcoin it that it is supposed to be private, secure, and untraceable. Obviously, this was a huge benefit for criminals on the Dark Web. Cryptocurrency got a really bad reputation once news broke that Bitcoin was being used to send money anonymously on the drug trafficking website Silk Road.

The appeal that a lot of Americans see in Bitcoin is that they believe they can avoid paying taxes to the IRS, which is also a crime. It’s tax evasion. In 2020, 44 percent of the Bitcoin supply belonged to people who identify as Libertarian. Today, the market has way more newcomers, so the percentage of Libertarians is much smaller as more casual people join to invest in hopes of getting rich, rather than trying to start a revolution.

What casual Bitcoin users don’t seem to understand is that even though their name is protected as a string of numbers and letters on the public ledger, that doesn’t mean they are fully anonymous. Most Bitcoin exchanges like Coinbase require that new users must upload the front and back of a Photo ID as well as take a selfie to prove that it’s really them. In Coinbase’s privacy policy, they state that they will keep your name, address, phone number, and more for up to five years and will give it to law enforcement if there was ever a subpoena. [2]

The FBI has made it very clear that they are watching Bitcoin very closely, and they are getting better and better at finding the true identities of the people who use Bitcoin for illegal activity. They are fully aware that not everyone who uses Bitcoin is a criminal. In fact, they have a public dossier of their educational materials given to law enforcement to help them understand what it is. There are plenty of ways for hackers to hide their identity, but for the casual user, they are not getting any added expectation of privacy from Bitcoin. At this point in time, the only way to truly have an anonymous and untraceable financial transaction is with cold, hard cash.

8 The Lack Of Leadership

Bitcoin was created by the man of mystery, Satoshi Nakamoto. While there are many compelling theories about his true identity, no one knows exactly who he is. At the beginning of the Bitcoin project, Satoshi was able to guide the coders who helped create the platform any time they had a question. Once investigation agencies all over the world began searching for him, Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared. All over the world, homes of suspected Satoshis have been raided. Despite law enforcement’s best efforts, his true identity is still a mystery.

Now, coders and miners must come to a consensus every time a decision about Bitcoin’s future must be made. Unfortunately, the community cannot seem to agree on even the smallest decisions. There is no clear business plan mapping out Bitcoin’s future. In fact, the Reddit community message boards had to split into two totally separate Bitcoin groups, because opposing opinions wanted to continue to talk inside an echo chamber instead of getting along. [3]

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Other cryptocurrencies actually have leaders to guide them. Vitalik Buterin is the boy genius creator of Ethereum. Harvard-educated Brad Garlinghouse is the CEO of Ripple. Both Buterin and Garlinghouse met with central banks and the Federal Reserve in October 2020, but Bitcoin did not have a seat, because there is no leader to represent them.

7 Laws And Regulations

In October 2020, China declared that it was illegal to create an “ICO,” which stands for “Initial Coin Offering.” Start-up companies were learning how to use blockchain to make their own spin-off coins to raise funds. The only downside was that a lot of these coins were fraudulent. A few fake coin companies took millions of dollars from desperate people who were trying to invest so they could “get rich” on these ICOs.

In New York, all businesses who want to accept Bitcoin are required to register for a “BitLicense” if they want to do business. The license promises to comply with United States taxation laws and regulations. The application costs $5,000, and there are 500 pages of legal paperwork that would require a team of taxation lawyers to decipher. For most businesses, it’s simply not worth the money, time, and effort to accept Bitcoin when so few people will actually use it in their stores. [4]

In 2020, the IRS released a guideline that anyone who profits from digital currency needs to pay taxes in the same way that anyone selling their stocks or bonds must pay their taxes. If the Bitcoin revolutionaries stick to their morals, they aren’t going to listen to the IRS. When there is such a huge spotlight on an activity that is known for tax evasion, it is obviously something that law enforcement takes notice of.

6 Use Cases

Many small businesses in California’s Silicon Valley accept Bitcoin as a form of payment, but larger corporations still only accept cash and cards. Unless Bitcoin can actually buy and sell things with bigger companies, they will never actually have very much of a purpose, since blockchain technology can exist without Bitcoin. The Journal of Government Financial Management says that blockchain technology can truly help the financial system, but they need to see more successful examples of use cases, first.

At the moment, the one and only digital currency that is actually working with the US Federal Reserve is a company called Ripple. They have proven that they can work with large corporations, banks, and credit card companies. They’re even going to process the financial transactions of American Express. Ripple has their own cryptocurrency, called XRP.

All of the original ideas for possible use cases for the blockchain are actually coming true through Ripple, not Bitcoin. In October 2020, Bill Gates announced that he chose Ripple to run his project that will help alleviate poverty in developing nations, despite having promoted Bitcoin in the past. [5]

5 Time And Mining Problems

The longer Bitcoin exists, the more difficult it becomes to “mine,” or create new coins. Without the miners, the Bitcoin network collapses. The cost of getting started as a new miner is so far out of reach for the average person that the main miners are gigantic warehouses in China. In most countries, the cost of electricity to run these computers is actually more than what the digital currency is worth, which makes it pointless to even try.

The longer Bitcoin exists, the longer it takes for these computer systems to process the information. At the time this article was written, the official time for a Bitcoin transfer is “one hour,” but anyone who uses Bitcoin on a regular basis knows that is far from the truth. Transactions can take up to six hours at busy times of the day, because it averages 15 transactions per second. There is no guarantee that it will ever improve. In fact, it is likely to keep getting worse. [6]

In contrast, Ripple’s coin XRP settles 1,500 transactions every second, and they have the technology and infrastructure to make sure that they’ll never slow down. In the digital age, where people want things to happen within a split second, it is simply not realistic to think that as the world slowly begins to understand and use blockchain in their everyday lives, they will choose the slower option, Bitcoin, over currencies that are faster.

4 Fear, Uncertainty, And Doubt

The current Bitcoin market is extremely volatile. If Bitcoin is in the news, its price can fluctuate hundreds of dollars in a matter of hours. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt are talked about so often in the community that everyone just calls them “FUD.” If there was ever any reason for the public to believe that Bitcoin may become illegal, if there was a hack, a virus, or any other issue in the system, the value will drop dramatically as people panic and sell as quickly as possible. It’s very similar to the stock market in that way.

If the Great Depression and the 2008 recession were any clue about the future, people will sell without hesitation if they lose faith in Bitcoin. Without any clear vision of where Bitcoin is going, there is very little for an investor to count on or to have faith in. Many people have been rewarded for holding onto their Bitcoins for dear life, but good news can only last for so long. [7]

3 Will The Real Bitcoin Please Stand Up?

Since the Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto is no longer publishing his opinions, all coders have left is the documentation he left behind. One person can read the same exact paragraph in the Bitcoin White Paper and come up with a totally different interpretation of Satoshi’s words than the next person. There are a lot of people who believe that in order for Bitcoin to survive, there needs to be a mass exodus to another platform that would be faster and more reliable.

Developers have come up with a solution called a “hard fork,” which is why Bitcoin Cash was created. However, they believed that Bitcoin Cash still did not solve the problems, so there was a much-contested plan to create yet another hard fork called Bitcoin Gold. That plan, known as SegWit2x, was eventually called off, and it resulted in another sharp spike in the price of the original Bitcoin. [8]

As of 2020, the amount of Bitcoin that Satoshi Nakamoto owns is now worth billions of dollars, and he has made it clear that he is done with the project. He could possibly be on a private island enjoying life while coders continue to argue over which coin gets to be the “real” Bitcoin.

2 The One Percent Hate Bitcoin

Billionaire Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan chase, has called Bitcoin a fraud and says that it is destined to fail. He said that even if the price of one Bitcoin rises to $100,000, it would not change his opinion that it is destined for failure some day. [9]

Every single year, Toronto hosts a banking conference called the Swift International Banking Operations Seminar (SIBOS), where some of the most powerful people in the world meet. The major company that runs the convention is called Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). They are in charge of what the world currently uses for banking transfers. One individual bank moves billions of dollars every year. Almost all of the banks in the world use SWIFT’s now-outdated technology, and they handle quadrillions of dollars.

At the October 2020 SIBOS, SWIFT CEO Gottfried Leibbrandt said during an interview that their company is trying to come out with a technology that will improve security, anonymity, and speed. It’s easy to read between the lines and know that what he is really saying is that they want to make their own blockchain. However, he claims that it will take them over a year to actually get their technology up and running. Ripple was so confident that they can beat SWIFT that they they purposely scheduled their own conference, called SWELL, at the same time and location as SIBOS. Their party-crashing resulted in successfully adopting hundreds of new banking partners to use their technology. The one percent aren’t threatened by Ripple the way they are by Bitcoin.

1 The End Of The World As We Know It

The most enthusiastic supporters of Bitcoin are revolutionaries. Some hope that people will rise up and choose to go with Bitcoin instead of using traditional banks. Michael Lewis, the author of Moneyball, was encouraged to talk to these Bitcoin revolutionaries in Silicon Valley, because it might make for good material for another book. He watched as the revolutionaries very literally sat around smoking weed and talking about their ideas of the future, and he left feeling as though Bitcoin was going to fail. He decided not to write a book on the subject. [10]

In order for these revolutionaries to get what they want—people losing faith in banks and switching to Bitcoin—the economy of the world as we know it would have to collapse. If that actually happened, people would have to lose their jobs, their homes, and maybe even their lives. Active revolutionaries who are pushing for a collapse are in short supply.

While they’re not necessarily one and the same, a member of Anonymous told Vice News that many of the members have left and that the organization is full of distrust. Others make false promises and never act out on their plans of revolution. For the most part, it’s just kids writing on the Internet about how they want the world to change, without a real plan on how to execute it. If one revolutionary group like Anonymous can fall apart, what’s to stop Bitcoin from suffering the same fate? Even if they could change everything in an instant, would they really be prepared to push the big red button to begin the end of the world?

8 Reasons Why Bitcoin ‘Must’ Go Down, Only 2 Why It May Go Up

Illustration of open currency source money Bitcoin

Bitcoin is in great shape. Period. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) started a new bull market on April 2nd, 2020, as reported in Bitcoin & Crypto: Bear Market Officially Ends Today. Almost 2 months earlier we forecasted the Crypto Winter Has Ended. And 8 months earlier we forecasted 5 bullish crypto market predictions our Bitcoin price prediction of $25k to be achieved at a later point in time. But wait a second, the internet is full of reasons why Bitcoin should go down. We collected the top 8 reasons why Bitcoin should go down from others, and we hold it against just 2 reasons why InvestingHaven says Bitcoin will go up. Interesting, 8 against 2, who to believe?

So here we go with the top 8 reasons why the price of Bitcoin must go down.

  1. The top spot, absolute number one, is one we read recently on a social trading site: the spread of the price of Bitcoin between exchanges like Coinbase, Bitfinex, and others is so large that it indicates elevated risk, therefore Bitcoin will go lower. InvestingHaven says: don’t mix up institutional credit markets with the price of Bitcoin between exchanges. Credit spread is as unrelated as possible to Bitcoin price spread, the only thing that they have in common is the 6 character word ‘spread’.
  2. There is a head and shoulders formation on Bitcoin’s chart, therefore Bitcoin will go down. InvestingHaven says: there are head and shoulders everywhere. With a bit of creativity you will find 1000 head and shoulders on Bitcoin’s chart since its inception, especially on short term timeframes. Be very careful with short term timeframes, at InvestingHaven we never do short term forecasts, it’s almost impossible to do this right. Moreover, as per our 50 cryptocurrency investing tips, you need 3 timeframes to confirm each other before doing a forecast!
  3. There was a trendline on Bitcoin’s chart pointing to 1k. InvestingHaven says: there are thousands of trendlines on each price chart. The only thing that matters is RELEVANT trendlines. It’s not because you have found a trendline that you know price will evolve according to that line. If charting was THAT easy every chartist would be a billionaire. Be extremely careful with charts and trendlines, chart analysis is a research domain not some playground.
  4. Jamie Dimon from the mighty JP Morgan told Bitcoin is a scam. InvestingHaven says: admittedly, this is a classic one, in the meantime as old as the street. But after 2 years it became blatantly clear why he made that statement: he started developing his own cryptocurrency. Watch out with extreme statements especially from influential people, they mostly have their own interest and (hidden) agenda.
  5. Gurus who are very smart told there is no future in blockchain. We will not reveal any name other than the smartest among all of them which is Mr. Roubini. This economic genius of Mr. Roubini says Bitcoin fans are clueless, he pretends Bitcoin is the mother of all scams and predicts the technology has no basis for success. InvestingHaven says: economic analysis is not the same things as technology analysis. In fact, those are two totally separate things. An economist that is has a great, world class thought leadership on one or more economic topics will not ‘by default’ know anything meaningful about technologies.
  6. The long term gold chart and Bitcoin chart are correlated, therefore Bitcoin cannot go up again (similar to gold). InvestingHaven says: don’t mix up asset classes. Gold is a totally different and unrelated asset class compared to Bitcoin which is a new and emerging technology, again entirely unrelated.
  7. Ernst & Young says 10% of ICOs are scam, therefore Bitcoin is a scam. InvestingHaven says: probably our answer is a mix of all things outlined above, we’ll not repeat ourselves.
  8. My banker adviced to stay away from Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. InvestingHaven says: no comment other than your banker has a track record of being the ultimate contrarian indicator!

All we can say to this list of reasons why Bitcoin must go down is this: keep them coming. We love them!

Why do we like this?

Very simple, the higher the consensus that a market goes in one direction the higher probability it will move in the opposite direction.

Bitcoin tried to go lower, and did not ‘succeed’ in doing so. If prices do not go down, they have only 2 options left: sideways or up. Crypto has a track record of _not_ going sideways, it is way too volatile.

From failed moves come fast moves.’ This essentially means that if an expected outcome does not materialize the move in the opposite direction takes place fast and in a furious way. If a market or stock continues to consolidate near its all-time highs, and decides to move lower it mostly declines in an aggressive way. Similarly, a failed breakdown tends to result in a sudden an strong rally!

Stated differently, we truly LOVE silent bull markets!

Crypto, driven by Bitcoin, is in a silent bull market right now. Period.

So which 2 reasons can we come up with why Bitcoin will go up?

  1. The Bitcoin price chart with the *really* relevant trendlines says a new bull market started, and the findings on the different timeframes confirm each other. Simple as that? Yes!
  2. The average profit/loss of Bitcoin holders was slightly positive when Bitcoin was trading around $5k.

That’s it? Yes, that’s it!

Market analysis does not have to be complicated, it has to be laser sharp. ‘Less is more’.

We have updated all our top cryptocurrency picks with annotated charts, and our top picks are doing amazingly well. They are not available on our public website. Get instant access to our restricted crypto research area >>

Reasons Why Forex Traders Lose Money

Michael Grabois/Getty Images

A commonly known fact is that most forex traders fail. In fact, it is estimated that 96 percent of forex traders lose money and end up quitting. The forex website DailyFX found that many forex traders do better than that, but new traders still have a tough timing gaining ground in this market. To help you make it into that elusive 4 percent of winning traders, the following list shows you some of the most common reasons why forex traders lose money.

Befriending the Market

The market is not something you beat, but something you understand and join when a trend is defined. At the same time, the market is something that can shake you out if you are trying to get too much from it with too little capital. Having the “beating the market” mindset often causes traders to trade too aggressively or go against trends, which is a sure recipe for disaster.

Low Start-Up Capital

Most currency traders start out looking for a way to get out of debt or to make easy money. It is common for forex marketers to encourage you to trade large lot sizes and trade using high leverage to generate large returns on a small amount of initial capital.

You must have some money to make some money, and it is possible for you to generate outstanding returns on limited capital in the short term. However, with only a small amount of capital and outsized risk because of too-high leverage, you will find yourself being emotional with each swing of the market’s ups and downs and jumping in and out and the worst times possible.

You can resolve this issue by never trading with a too-small amount of capital. This is a difficult problem to get around for someone that wants to start trading on a shoestring. $1,000 is a reasonable amount to start off with if you trade very small (micro lots or smaller). Otherwise, you are just setting yourself up for potential disaster.

Failure to Manage Risk

Risk management is key to survival as a forex trader as in life. You can be a very skilled trader and still be wiped out by poor risk management. Your number one job is not to make a profit, but rather to protect what you have. As your capital gets depleted, your ability to make a profit is lost.

To counteract this threat and implement good risk management, place stop-loss orders and move them once you have a reasonable profit. Use lot sizes that are reasonable compared to your account capital. Most of all, if a trade no longer makes sense, get out of it.

Giving in to Greed

Some traders feel that they need to squeeze every last pip out of a move in the market. There is money to be made in the forex markets every day. Trying to grab every last pip before a currency pair turns can cause you to hold positions too long and set you up to lose the profitable trade that you are trading.

The solution seems obvious here, just don’t be greedy. It’s fine to shoot for a reasonable profit but there are plenty of pips to go around. Currencies continue to move every day so there is no need to get that last pip; the next opportunity is right around the corner.

Indecisive Trading

Sometimes you might find yourself suffering from trading remorse. This happens when a trade that you open isn’t immediately profitable and you start saying to yourself that you picked the wrong direction. Then you close your trade and reverse it, only to see the market go back in the initial direction that you chose.

In this case, you need to pick a direction and stick with it. All that switching back and forth will just make you continually lose little bits of your account at a time until your investing capital is depleted.

Trying to Pick Tops or Bottoms

Many new traders try to pick turning points in currency pairs. They will place a trade on a pair, and as it keeps going in the wrong direction, they continue to add to their position being sure that it is about to turn around this time. If you trade this way, in the end, you end up with much more exposure than you planned, along with a terribly negative trade.

It’s best to trade with the trend. It’s not worth the bragging rights to know that you picked one bottom correctly out of 10 attempts. If you think the trend is going to change, and you want to take a trade in the new possible direction, wait for a confirmation on the trend change.

If you want to pick up a position at the bottom, pick up the bottom in an uptrend, not in a downtrend. If you want to open a position at the top, pick a top when the market’s making a corrective move higher, not an uptrend that’s part of a larger a downtrend.

Refusing to Be Wrong

Some trades just don’t work out. It is human nature to want to be right, but sometimes you just aren’t. As a trader, you just have to accept that you’re wrong sometimes and move on, instead of clinging to the idea of being right and ending up with a zero-balance trading account.

It is a difficult thing to do, but sometimes you just have to admit that you made a mistake. Either you entered the trade for the wrong reasons, or it just didn’t work out the way you planned it. Either way, the best thing to do is just admit the mistake, dump the trade, and move on to the next opportunity.

Buying a System

There are many so-called forex trading systems for sale on the internet. Some traders are out there looking for the ever-elusive 100-percent accurate forex trading system. They keep buying systems and trying them until finally giving up, deciding that there is no way to win.

As a new trader, you must accept that there is no such thing as a free lunch. Winning at forex trading takes work just like anything else. You can find success by building your own method, strategy, and system instead of buying worthless systems on the internet from less-than-reputable marketers.

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