Part 4 Creating the First Forex Strategy – How to Fine-tune Your Strategy (Manual Backtesting)

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Contents

How to Manually Backtest a Trading Strategy in Metatrader 4 (MT4)

If you’re into automatic Forex trading via Expert Advisors (EAs), that’s great! There are some advantages to building EAs to trade, like eliminating human error and being able to run years of backtesting in a couple of hours.

EAs have their limitations though. For instance, choosing good support and resistance levels to take your trading setups from is a pretty subjective process. How are you going to program an EA to only take trades from good support/resistance levels? Sometimes manual backtesting is the way to go.

When it comes to manual backtesting, you have some different options. You can use a backtesting software, like Forex Tester, to help you keep track of your performance, and also to allow you to factor in spread, broker rules, etc…. While that is a great training tool, and a faster process for those who can afford it, today I’m going to show you how to manually backtest a trading strategy in Metatrader 4 (MT4).

How to Manually Backtest a Trading Strategy in Metatrader 4 (MT4)

If you’re using a new installation of MT4, you may not have enough data to work with on your longer time periods, i.e., Daily, Weekly, and Monthly. If you need more chart history to work with, open your “History Center” (F2) and download or import the required data for your currency pair.

Note: You can save time and hard drive space by only downloading the data that you need. For instance, if you are only going to be backtesting your trading system on the Daily charts, there is no point in downloading 1 Minute (M1) data.

Next, you need to rewind your chart history in MT4, so make sure the green auto scroll button is not engaged (see the image below). Rewind the chart history by dragging with your mouse or using your ← arrow key.

Note: To start manually backtesting, you need to know a few, useful Metatrader 4 hotkeys. Mainly, F12 moves the chart forward by 1 candlestick at a time. To move the chart backward by 1 candlestick at a time, hit Shift+F12.

Once you’ve gone backward far enough in your chart history, simply hit F12 until a setup appears that meets the requirements the trading strategy that you are testing. In the example below, I used a morning star candlestick pattern as my entry signal.

When manually backtesting a new trading strategy in MT4, some traders plot out their entry, stop loss, and take profit levels at each trading setup (like I did in the image above). However, this can be tedious – especially if you plan to take a hundred or more backtesting trades.

A faster way to backtest is to skip plotting or measuring anything at all, unless you need to. Stick to your rules. If the price goes straight to your stop loss, then you obviously count that as a loss. If price action goes directly to your take profit, then you count that as a win.

When the trade result is obvious, nothing else needs to be done. When the result is not so obvious, you can simply measure using the crosshair in MT4 (click the mouse wheel or Ctrl+F).

In the image above, you can see the same trade setup as before. This time, I simply measured the pips from my entry to my stop loss, and then doubled that to get my take profit.

In either example, it’s easy to see that my trade did not quite hit a full take profit. However, by only measuring with the crosshair, I was able to determine the result much faster and move on to the next trade.

Putting Your New Manual Backtesting Skills to Good Use

I suggest doing a couple hundred backtesting trades, for each new strategy, using these techniques. Determine your risk and write down the results of each trade, e.g., -2%, +4%, BE, etc…. To get an accurate representation of your trading strategy’s profitability, you need to do the math on a hypothetical trading account as well.

Example: Starting with a hypothetical trading account of $1,000, a 2% loss brings the account to $980. After a 4% gain, the account is up to $1,019.2. The next trade was stopped out at break even (BE), resulting in no change.

It’s important to track your profit and loss on each currency pair separately, because most trading strategies experience, at least, some variance in performance between pairs. Many perform extremely well on certain pairs and extremely poorly on others.

Some of these techniques may seem obvious to you, but learning how to manually backtest a trading strategy in Metatrader 4 (MT4) can save you a lot of time and money down the road. Although tedious at times, going through these steps, thoroughly, will help you weed out the loosing strategies, and build up your confidence in the winning strategies.

How to backtest a trading strategy

When you found an interesting trading strategy (or designed it yourself), you need to check whether it worked in the past before you actually bet your money on it. This process of checking a strategy on the historical data is called “backtesting”.

When you backtest your strategy, make sure that you observe its performance for enough time and during different market conditions (trends, ranges).

There are 2 types of backtesting: manual and automated. The automatic backtesting is done with the help of programs, for example, Expert Advisors (EA) that open and manage the trades for you when certain technical conditions are met. To create an EA, you will need to know MQL4 programming language and syntax. As a result, in many cases, a simpler and more reliable manual testing can turn out to be a better solution.

Manual backtesting of a trading strategy

Follow simple steps

Step 1. Open the chart of a currency pair on which you want to backtest your strategy. It’s best to analyze one pair at a time. If necessary, you can do the backtest on another pair later. Apply the necessary indicators and tools to the chart. Scroll the chart to the previous period.

Step 2. Check the chart candlestick by candlestick looking for setups in line with the strategy you are testing.

Step 3. After finding a trade setup based on your trading strategy, write down the details of the potential past trade. You should write the date, entry point, stop loss, take profit and any other information you find necessary.

Step 4. Repeat the process until you find another possible trade setup and then go back to step 3.

When you have the results of potential trades written (we recommend using Excel), it will be easy to calculate the win-rate of the trading strategy.

If you find that your strategy performs poorly in backtesting, consider changing one variable at a time based on your observations, until you arrive at a profitable strategy.

Manual backtesting of a trading strategy requires time and discipline. However, if done right it will give you a good idea of the strategy’s success rate. Remember that you are backtesting a strategy for your own benefit. In addition, manual backtesting will give you a better understanding of the market and allow you to practice determining entry and exit levels.

It’s important to understand that the market tends to change. So, a strategy that was considered successful by the results of backtesting will not necessarily continue to show the same success rate in the future. This is why every strategy should be accompanied by sensible risk management.

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How to create such a strategy? (Page 1 of 2)

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Posts: 1 to 25 of 29

1 Topic by wewewe888 2020-12-30 20:37:29 (edited by Popov 2020-12-30 20:41:21)

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Topic: How to create such a strategy?

How to create such a strategy? https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/7205 Help me please.

Superman ZigZag Indicator
Superman ZigZag Indicator is based on ZigZag Indicator and it determines the range (Previous High and Previous Low).

– If price is over the High point or lower the Low Point: Market is Breakout.
– If price is under the High Point and above the Low Point: Market is Sideway

2 Reply by Popov 2020-12-30 20:40:37

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

When you ask questions, please post the info instead of a link only.

ZigZag indicator is dangerous. It’s standard implementation repaints the past signals, which may lead to a false backtest. This indicator was removed from FSB 6-7 years ago.

3 Reply by Irmantas 2020-12-30 21:06:14

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Hi,
I don’t fully understand these white arrows. Why they are both short and long ways in swing h/l areas? Does it depends how last two highs or lows is ordered, and only then deciding to buy or sell?

If you want to enter for a break out of swing highs or lows, you can use Ross Hook indicator. To manipulate sensitivity(period) you can set it to use “Longer time frame”.

Also you can use the same indicator for reversal too. You just can’t use both condition in the same strategy.
You can try to find filters with FSB for these different market regimes – “Market is Breakout” or “Market is Sideways”.
However if you want to have it in the same strategy with no other filters, probably you need custom indicator, which you can order in paid coding service in the forum.
Hope it helps,
Happy new year

4 Reply by Irmantas 2020-12-30 21:18:00 (edited by Irmantas 2020-12-30 21:42:41)

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Not so bad for few minutes work to go for a break of these recent highs/lows. However JPY pairs was trending for a long time. If market changes to more rangy type, this strategy would fail, like it does with other currencies than JPY. So I guess some filtering is a must. Actually I liked this idea to try to differentiate between trending and ranging condition by looking how two last highs or lows was placed. If market makes higher highs, you have trend and opposite is true.

break out UJ d1.xml 9.62 kb, 10 downloads since 2020-12-30

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5 Reply by wewewe888 2020-12-31 22:46:29

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Demo account. Zigzag. https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/130958

6 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-02 20:56:22

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Not so bad for few minutes work to go for a break of these recent highs/lows. However JPY pairs was trending for a long time. If market changes to more rangy type, this strategy would fail, like it does with other currencies than JPY. So I guess some filtering is a must. Actually I liked this idea to try to differentiate between trending and ranging condition by looking how two last highs or lows was placed. If market makes higher highs, you have trend and opposite is true.

How did you create the strategy?

7 Reply by Irmantas 2020-01-02 21:12:22

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

How did you create the strategy?

Strategy was attached in the last post.

But I can do one more time with a picture Used USDJPY daily data.

8 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-03 16:06:03

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

9 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-03 17:11:21

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

10 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-08 01:34:40 (edited by wewewe888 2020-01-08 02:21:16)

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Sorry, I could not create the strategy.
This is the right strategy.

This is my strategy.

usdjpy-h1.xml 9.89 kb, 3 downloads since 2020-01-08

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11 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-08 03:10:36

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

12 Reply by Popov 2020-01-08 07:32:14

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Wewe, is there a special reason to want exactly that strategy?

In most of the case focusing on a single pattern and trying to make it profitable is a waste of time. I suggest you to run the Generator and it may create you several good strategies for the market you want.

13 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-08 19:43:56

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Wewe, is there a special reason to want exactly that strategy?

In most of the case focusing on a single pattern and trying to make it profitable is a waste of time. I suggest you to run the Generator and it may create you several good strategies for the market you want.

The reason is profit 7525.42% https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/130958

14 Reply by hannahis 2020-01-09 08:44:16 (edited by hannahis 2020-01-09 08:46:21)

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Wewe, is there a special reason to want exactly that strategy?

In most of the case focusing on a single pattern and trying to make it profitable is a waste of time. I suggest you to run the Generator and it may create you several good strategies for the market you want.

The reason is profit 7525.42% https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/130958

Yes, that’s sounds like a very valid reason and a big motivational force, who would want to give such a profit 7525.42% a missed. I fully understand

15 Reply by Popov 2020-01-09 09:06:15

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Yes, it is an excellent result. However it is much simpler to subscribe to the signals instead to try to reverse engineer the trading rules.

The most experienced users of the forum must know a strategy that we post 10 years ago, which still works even today. It is amazing that this is one of the most simple possible strategies. I found it on the first days I experimented with the Generator prototype.

Here is a very extreme, however 100% correct result. (profit 13 221%)

16 Reply by hannahis 2020-01-09 09:15:14

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Nice Popov, though I haven’t tried this strategy.

Can you post the link to view the updated results and the download of the EA somewhere in another post for new comers to view

And you can use it as your marketing and promotional tools to let them know that when they buy your software, they inevitable “inherted” such good EA and be impressed by FSB’s capabilities.

17 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-09 18:01:36

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

This is my result

18 Reply by wewewe888 2020-01-09 18:10:57

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Yes, it is an excellent result. However it is much simpler to subscribe to the signals instead to try to reverse engineer the trading rules.

I can not subscribe to the signal. This is a demo account.

19 Reply by Blaiserboy 2020-01-10 14:03:49

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

Instead of getting too fancy developing strategies, why not work with what is available in the software today.

Believe me, there is no reason to look to add things, we have a lot of tools that can generate some nice results.

By keeping it simple, we can use this software to make a nice return, trying to add complex stuff will be a waste of time and end up with frustration.

20 Reply by hannahis 2020-01-12 17:28:14 (edited by hannahis 2020-01-12 17:55:25)

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

I totally agree. FSB’s optimisation tool has improved tremendously and as long as you have a simple workable trading theory, you can input it in FSB and allow the optmization tool to improve your work further and bring you really good results.

Attached is the results of some of my optimized Strategies.

Here’s another portfolio, all optimized Strategies (a collaborative effort with another FSB member, though it’s still early but the results look promising for the start). So from this collaborative team work, I realized that FSB’s optmization tool really has made our job in building profitable EA much easier.

Thus now I can fully agree with Dave (BlaiserBoy), keep it simple. Let FSB do it’s job.

21 Reply by Simon 2020-02-15 21:00:54

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

I totally agree. FSB’s optimisation tool has improved tremendously and as long as you have a simple workable trading theory, you can input it in FSB and allow the optmization tool to improve your work further and bring you really good results.

Attached is the results of some of my optimized Strategies.

Here’s another portfolio, all optimized Strategies (a collaborative effort with another FSB member, though it’s still early but the results look promising for the start). So from this collaborative team work, I realized that FSB’s optmization tool really has made our job in building profitable EA much easier.

Thus now I can fully agree with Dave (BlaiserBoy), keep it simple. Let FSB do it’s job.

It’s interesting to hear you say this, I have been reading some of your posts about strategy creation, and you seem to be an advocate of complex strategies, and my intention was to read a lot more of your posts to help me grasp your method.. Is it now that you think keeping it simple is the best way forward?

Some of you may have seen me show up from time to time over the last couple of years, each time coming back to start anew, but I’m really trying to get somewhere with it this time, regardless of life’s obstacles.

I’m trying to work out a repeatable step-by-step process to strategy creation, and how to properly analyse one using FSB Pro’s tools – eg; Monte Carlo, and how to properly go about optimising as well. Would love some pointers

I have also just ‘Cleaned House” on a VPS that I will use for EA’s, which had numerous instances of MT4 with bad file paths, so I made the decision to sacrifice the data they had gathered, (which seemed to have lots of errors, bars with wrong time etc, a notepad++ nightmare..) and create new instances with clear file paths that I will now not mess with. This means my data is very sparse, which led me to reading about your M1 strategy preferences, as I will obviously have more M1 bars in the near future than any other timeframe. Would you say that I am going to need to wait quite a while for my data to come to fruition, or could you suggest an alternative course of action for creating strategies relevant to my broker in the meantime?

FSB Pro was also in a bad way due to bad file paths to data sources, Miroslav recently helped me by advising a total reinstall of the software, it’s working fine now, I’m keen to make some good strategies..

22 Reply by hannahis 2020-02-16 01:44:32 (edited by hannahis 2020-02-16 02:06:17)

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Re: How to create such a strategy?

There are several ways to make profitable EA via FSB.

1) The data mining cum statistical approach using Generator, MC, etc

2) Input your trading theory approach (using Longer Time Frames, etc)

3) Input your trading theory and use FSB’s optimizing tool approach (input your trading theory and then use FSB’s optimizing tools to fine tune)

Which of the above mentioned methods would one use depends largely on a person’s personal preference.

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I personally prefer method 1 & 2

When I said keep it simple, it’s with reference to “being stuck” with certain indicators or trading theory that not “found” in FSB and hence, I’m trying to convey the message that there are a lot of “workable trading theory” one can use in FSB to create profitable EA.

One can develop profitable EA even just using simple MA cross over theory and one of the possible reasons why people don’t seem to get profitable EA may due to the following reasons

1) The trading theory isn’t “workable” in the 1st place. Make sure you can see how it works on your MT4 chart. If you can’t even “see” the trading edge on your MT4 charts with your indicators in place, then most likely the trading theory isn’t that “sound” in the 1st place. Over the years, I’ve developed a workflow that can turn any workable theory into profitable EA. However, my workflow isn’t a miracle worker to turn a terrible trading theory into a profitable one. Thus the 1st key to developing profitable EA lies in one’s trading theory. how “sound” is it.

2) Fail to use the correct combination. I don’t know how not to emphasis this as one of the Key important factor that can determine one’s success or failure. I’ve demonstrated this essential point before. Even if you use the “appropriate” parameters, if you use the wrong combinations (smoothing method, base price, signal method), you will ended up with unprofitable EA. But if you use the correct combinations. You “hit the jackpot” and you will see what a big difference the correct combinations can do to one’s EA.

Hint: Do not use “Close” as your base price. From my experiment, 99% of EA using “Close” as their base price ended up unprofitable (or have the worst results among other combinations). Of cos that depends on what’s your trading theory. If the rule is price close above lower band after opening below before it etc, then I understand the need to use “Close” but majority of the time, most of my profitable EA has “Medium” as my base price. So you may want to try using Medium as the best alternatives.

In the past I use a lot of complex rules to improve my EA and after several attempts (of not able to improve my EA significantly) I decided to search for the best combinations rule by rule. A very tedious but extremely rewarding task. To my amazement, even with only 1 trading rules, my results were far better than those with multiple rules (but wrong combinations). Hence, now I build my EA rules by rules, i.e find the best combinations for the 1st rule and then move on to find the best combinations for the 2nd rules.

I know the thought of having to go through such tedious procedures may put others off. What’s can I say? Is gold found on the surface or does one need to spend efforts to search of it? The results is far rewarding, that I can conclude.

3) Failure to put much thought to the whole process of EA development. If one expect to find highly profitable EA via FSB without much thought. Any how input your Opening and Closing rules and then “Volia” and expect to find profitable EA, then I would say, it’s not that simple really (maybe you can find “low quality” EA with low PF value etc).

1. Keep it simple – yes, you don’t need complicated theory to find profitable EA

2. However to build highly profitable EA, one need to build in some “complex” rules to eliminate side way trending for a breakout EA in order to increase it’s profitability and reduce Max DD during ranging times.

3. If you have a sound theory, you can use FSB optimizing tools to help you improve your EA tremendously if you know how to use it to your advantage (if you put some thinking into the whole process).

4. My EA are build via trading theory input and I rely on demo testing to confirm my trading results (so even if FSB’s backtest tell me that my EA is losing, I still go ahead to do demo test).

5. I never use Monte C. or Multi Market or OSS or walk farward etc in my EA development process (I’m not saying don’t use it, what I’m trying to say is, I don’t need to use it in order to find profitable EA). I’m not saying I never tried them before but these features aren’t part of my workflow.

6. If anyone can’t find profitable EA via FSB, kindly do some homework and learn some trading rules. FSB is just a trading tool, we still need to use our brains. I’ve built countless of profitable EA over the years. So I’m very sure it’s possible to use FSB to build profitable EA. There is no short cut to success. However, If anyone wants an easy way out, go and subscribe a trading signal, that’s what I would advice. Building quality EA requires commitment and dedication. That’s where many fail and give up. Forex trading isn’t a get rich quick scheme, likewise, FSB isn’t a get profitable EA quick method (without much thots). But once a person has a successful workflow, yes, it’s is very “easy” then to churn out thousands of profitable EA.

Ok Simon, I hope I’ve cleared up some of the confusions and I wish you all the best in your EA development progress and hope you find success in your journey.

How to Backtest a Trading Strategy Using a Simulator ?

Nendi Ken

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Suppose you have a forex trading strategy and want to test how accurate the strategy is.

You can test it in several ways, one of them is the forward testing method that uses a demo account.

However, before doing forward testing it is better to test it first by using this backtesting.

Why Backtesting?
One of the advantages of doing backtesting is that you can try a trading strategy faster than forward testing.

But make no mistake, even though you have done backtesting, it still has to be followed by forward testing because the quality of the backtest results is very dependent on the quality of historical data on the price movements you have. To anticipate this, forward testing needs to be done afterwards.

I once wrote about backtesting, which you can read again. But the article is a way of backtesting an Expert Advisor (EA) or an established trading robot.

Well, this time I will try to discuss doing backtesting for manual trading.

Actually this method is also what I used to study trading in the past.

If you study – say – a technical indicator by scrolling the chart backwards and observing the pattern that has occurred, the pattern of indicators formed is already “made”, so the chance of a signal reading error is very small, even almost nil.

This certainly has the potential to be a problem if you start observing these indicators live.

That’s because often the shape or color of certain technical indicators changes with price fluctuations. This condition is usually called repaint.

Well, backtesting using a simulator is one solution to study indicators, or even certain trading systems.
With a trading simulator, you can return to the past and feel the movement at that time.

The technical indicators that you use will also move dynamically according to the price movements at that time.

Trading Simulator
You can search for a trading simulator program that can be installed on MT4 on the internet or from Market integrated with MT4. One of the simulators we use is MNZ Trading Sim.

How to get this simulator is to enter the Market that you can find in your MT4 Terminal. In the “search” box, you can just type MNZ Trading Sim, then you will see the simulator in question then click on the icon.
Using the Simulator
To backtesting the simulator that you downloaded earlier, use the Strategy Tester facility in MT4.

The way to activate the Strategy Tester is to click on the “View” button, then select “Strategy Tester”.

If you are used to using shortcuts, you can also press the Ctrl-R key on your keyboard.
You can also choose the time range you want to use to do the simulation. To do this, you must first check the “Use Date” selection box, then you can choose what date, month and year in the selection next to the “Use Date” box.

For example, if you choose “From: 2020.01.01 To: 2020.10.07”, that means you will use recorded data in that time period (from January 1, 2020 to July 10, 2020).

Because it will do manual trading simulations, don’t forget to also click the “Visual mode” checklist so that later you can see price movements like the actual movement.

After all parameters have been set, you just have to click “Start” and a chart will appear that displays price movements over the time span you have specified.

The moving chart actually shows “recordings” of the price movements that have taken place, but it is “played back” so that you can make a transaction at that time.

You can install the indicators that you want on the chart, according to the forex trading strategy indicator settings that you will simulate.

Running Simulation
Because this is only a recording, you can speed up or slow down the movement of the simulation chart.

The trick is to shift the “speed bar” in Visual Mode.

You can also stop the temporary simulation and then run it again with the “Pause” button available.
You just have to do a transaction (of course simulation) according to the signal given by the trading system you are using.

To make the simulation transaction, you can just take advantage of the features available at MNZ Trading Sim. You can do Instant / Market Execution or Pending Order simulations.

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