The Week Ahead – What To Look Out For When Trading This Week

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What to look for across week ahead after clarity on trade

Gurutrade December 17, 2020 at 12:18 PM 206 0

After many months of confusion and uncertainty, markets finally received a dose of clarity on two fronts. One on trade and the other on Brexit.

Washington and Beijing announced on Friday an agreement of an interim trade deal to partially reduce their trade conflict. According to this deal, China will purchase up to $200 billion in additional goods and services over the next two years on top of the amount it bought in 2020. The purchased products will include at least $40 billion of US agricultural goods. China will also refrain from competitive devaluations of the Yuan and tighten regulations on US intellectual property and forced technology transfer. In return, the US will cut tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese imports introduced in September to 7.5% from 15% and ditch planned tariffs on $160 billion of Chinese consumer products.

In the UK, Boris Johnson returns to power with a big majority, paving the way for the nation to leave the EU by the end of January. The hard part now begins for Mr. Johnson as he will try to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU and have it ratified by end of 2020 before the transition period ends.

With two of the most imminent global risks resolved, markets have breathed a sigh of relief, sending US equities to record highs while the Pound has rallied more than three big figures after Thursday’s election results were announced.

Despite the achievements over the last week, the drama may not be completely over and there’s still news flow to keep traders busy.

Trump impeachment may have little impact on financial markets

President Trump is set to be impeached this week by the Democrat-led House with charges of abusing his power and obstructing Congress. However, Republicans are not likely to convict him in a Senate trial. Given this fact, markets are unlikely to be moved much by the impeachment unless other facts emerge. However, we could see some noise in US equities and fixed income markets, but this is not expected to be majorly market moving.

Will the Bank of England turn hawkish?

The Bank of England is expected to keep policy unchanged when it meets on Thursday. Traders who pushed sterling to 1.35 against the dollar on Friday would like to hear hawkish comments to further encourage the bullish trend.

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Given that we have more clarity on the Brexit process, the BoE will put more focus on the economic outlook. ‘Getting Brexit done’ by early 2020 doesn’t necessarily mean improving economic conditions. We still have the transition period and a trade deal to be finalised. Until then, growth may remain weak and that’s likely to keep the BoE on the dovish side. Given that most of the good news has already been priced into the Pound, a dovish signal from the BoE will likely drive selling pressure. We currently see 1.35 as a short-term top with further sterling appreciation likely to require an improvement in the UK macro outlook.

The Bank of Japan is also due to meet on Thursday, but no changes are expected on policy or forward guidance.

Economic data releases and Fed speakers

Given that the two imminent risks have been resolved, economic data are likely to become the main driver for currency traders. Monday brings the latest set of PMI data from the Eurozone, UK, and the US. The data may not reflect the optimism related to the US-China phase-one deal or the Conservative victory. Tuesday sees the release of UK labour market data and on Wednesday, we’ll have the final CPI reading from the Eurozone and an inflation reading from the UK, along with the German IFO business climate survey. The last day of the working week brings the final reading on US third-quarter GDP growth.

Traders may also take some hints from Fed speakers Eric Rosengren and John Williams after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week and forecast no changes in policy for the year ahead.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

6 THINGS TO DO EVERY SUNDAY TO BE PREPARED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

A little bit of preparation goes a long way, and none more so than when Sunday comes around.

I like to have much of the work done for the week before it even starts, because I know that once Monday morning starts, daily busy-ness will ensue, and I will be chasing my proverbial tail all week if I’m not careful.

..and all that leads to is becoming stressed and tired just in time for the weekend – where the whole thing starts again.

But I don’t want my weekends full of stuff to do!

Weekends don’t have to be filled with jobs – in fact, the more organised you are, the less jobs you will actually have to do – but having a few things in place on Sunday will make your week go oh so smoothly.

Ready to join me?

Let’s get started and let’s make your weeks much easier!

#1 – CHECK YOUR DIARY

Hands down this is THE most important thing to do. Go through your diary and check what next week looks like.

  • Check all your scheduled stuff, and check that nothing is double booked.
  • Add in any travel time and prep time needed for each scheduled item
  • Go through your TO DO list and add in anything that is a priority for the week that you need to get done.
  • Do a quick check through of the next few weeks in your diary and monthly planner if you have one for all family related on off events and reminders – so you are aware of things that are coming up and can be ready in plenty of time. Things like buying present and cards, filling in forms or paying for a school event etc… can all be added to the TO DO’s with plenty of time to spare.
  • It’s also worth checking your email inbox to see if you have anything outstanding that needs to be taken care of – these may also need to be added to your diary…

Filling them in at the start of the week will mean that you will become much more likely to do them rather than try and do things as and when you have time (note – you will never have time!).

Don’t forget to think carefully about what you are scheduling in – and make sure that what you’re planning is actually possible, or are you setting yourself up for a fall…

Remember to allow yourself a little down time each day, and to fit in exercise etc… – when you look at your diary ahead of time you can see things much more clearly and so you are much more likely to create a better week than if you tried to do what you can when you can do it.

#2 – SORT MEALS FOR THE WEEK

This can mean different things for different people, depending on how you prefer to live: –

  • Batch cook and freeze all evening meals for the week
  • Plan what you will eat based on what you have in the cupboards
  • Do a weekly shop for what you need for the week ahead (or sort out an online shop to arrive when convenient to you to save time)

You may do a bit of everything, or just one of these things – but the key is that you have put a little thought into what you will eat and when.

This will help you every day as you can simply prepare what you have planned without thinking, and you will know that you have everything in the kitchen to create that meal.

#3 – SORT CLOTHES FOR THE WEEK

If you give a little thought to what you are doing each day (check the weather forecast as well if that will help you decide!), then you can simply get up and grab what you are wearing without having to worry about something not being clean/ironed etc….

This is a great time to sort your clothes as you will have also checked your diary and therefore know exactly what’s happening throughout the week. (If you have smaller children then you should also sort their clothes as well).

Simply get 5 (or 7) empty hangers and put them in one place in your wardrobe. Add to each hanger what you want to wear on that day (for kids you could even label the hangers with the day of the week).

You may already have the evening habit in place of sorting clothes for the next day – but doing as much as you can on a Sunday means you still have time to do a load of washing/get to the dry cleaners etc…. if needed, without a mid-week panic!

#4 – SORT “STUFF” FOR THE WEEK

The very technical category of “Stuff” (!) means anything that you need to have during the week ahead.

  • Birthday cards / Presents ready to be posted
  • Musical instrument ready to go to school one day
  • Anything needed by the children for school (money / letters / snacks etc…)
  • Spare change in the car for car parks you know you are going to need
  • Specific paperwork required on certain days
  • You will be near the dry cleaners and so you can pack dry cleaning ready in your car
  • Seeing a friend and need to give them something back that you borrowed

If you have everything ready to go then you will have a much less stressful week!

#5 – LOOK AFTER YOUR HOME

Do the simple jobs around the house that are time sensitive – for example: –

  • empty all your bins and recycling ready for the bin men in the week (last minute dashes do nothing to keep you calm!)
  • change all bedding ready for the week ahead (wash if you have time)
  • change all towels
  • do a 10 minute tidy up with the rest of your household to put everything back (nothing is more distracting than seeing other jobs that need doing on a Monday morning)

Doing a few chores ahead of time means that you can wake up on Monday morning and just have to concentrate on that day rather than try and catch up before the day has even begun.

#6 – LOOK AFTER YOURSELF

It’s not all jobs! – take some time to do something that you enjoy, something that relaxes you.

The rest of the week is likely to be a rush of appointments / work / kids etc… – so take a bit of time (even 10 minutes with a coffee can be enough) – and do something that makes you smile.

Also – go to bed at a decent time – being fully rested (as much as possible) will ensure that Monday starts off as well as it can!)

The beauty of doing as much as you can for the entire week up front is that you get the benefits of batching jobs. If you had to sort out from scratch at the end of each day for the next day then you would spend a lot more time over the course of the week than if you do it on one go, as you are thinking about 7 days in one go.

Yes, you will want to double check each evening, but the thinking and prep will have been done already.

Euro-to-Dollar Week Ahead: Charts Tip Losses Ahead but Virus Slowdown Could Save Day this Week

The Euro unwound almost all of its late March rebound against the Dollar last week and the charts are warning of more losses ahead, although weekend confirmation of a broad slowdown in the continental spread of coronavirus could lift risk appetite over the coming days and possibly the Euro-to-Dollar rate too. Europe’s single currency fell more than three percent last week, the most significant move to the downside since all of about a fortnight ago but not quite as large as the 4.5% gain seen in the prior week. The significant-but-also-insignificant price action last week is testament to the scale of the step-up in . (full story)

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If it will go down for the next 30days, that means it will attain parity with the USD.

Cannot go down that long when there is no Euro Crisis, what we have is World Crisis. Let us trade what we see on the charts if we are so good at predicting, then we should be truly rich

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For DXY, what are we likely to see? Deflation, hyper-inflation or a mix dependent upon asset class? Note: Your responses should not and will not be construed as investment advice. Entertainment purposes only.

The market looks as confused as I am about it all.

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  • Apr 5, 9:30pm (22 hr ago) Apr 5, 9:30pm (22 hr ago)

I’d definitely go with your analysis, since it goes in line with the fundamentals :

Net EUR longs rose for a third week�recording a sizable USD1.9bnincrease to USD10.2bn�or 74.3k contracts, which is the most constructive speculative investors have been on the EUR since mid-2020�on the face of it.

CFTC data for the week through the end of March show speculative accounts maintaining a bearish overall exposure to the USD, when looking at the aggregated positioning across the major currency contracts. The broad USD short edged USD740mn higher to just overUSD9bn–Scotia Bank FX research.

Furthermore, DXY rally was due to its safe heaven status ‘risk-off’, the transfer of capital flow from investors seeking shelter. 30 days of EUR free-falling? Not even Sterling on Black Wednesday will see something like that; Some of these aspiring traders shouldn’t quit their day jobs.

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